I was very interested in the Flash Manufacturing Report last night from China. It was not good but not a lot worse than last month. However, the fact that they haven’t been able to turn it around yet has interested me in shorting the last rally in FXI. (more…)
Betting Against the Europeans and Spain (SAN)
I realize that I am cursing the darkness lately by being so bearish… but “I yam what I yam.” (more…)
Betting on volatility with VIX calls (VXX)
OK I know that most of the VIX derivative ETFs are controversial and I think many of them are almost entirely traded by novices who don’t understand how futures work. However, I have enough hubris to believe that I understand it enough to amke a rational bet. (more…)
Long Home Builders (TOL)
TOL Reports earnings next week and has been stuck in a channel for over a month. The fact that TOL has not rallied while the market has been drifting higher is a bit of a concern but when I saw the NAHB sentiment survey this morning I started to think this is undervalued. (more…)
Is it Time to Get Long? UNG Natural Gas
I will admit that I tend to have a permanent bias towards the downside. However, I think that this market just does not want to go down. The S&P 500 keeps hitting support and bouncing despite earnings, crisis, politics, etc. It seems that bearish traders are getting a little tired. (more…)
Shorting China’s Growth – FXI
There isn’t much data due this week, but I am very interested in the Chinese economic announcements due on Thursday. The downward trend has been accelerating and I think that will be the catalyst for a break on FXI below $32 per share. (more…)
Puts on Apollo (APOL) after earnings
The company reported earnings (falling year over year) that were way above estimates. Appropriately the stock popped in the aftermarket last night and is up at resistance today. When I see this on APOL I get very itchy to ‘sell the news’ and profit from the subsequent decline when investors remember that the news may have been better than they expected but the trend is still down. (more…)
Strangle the Bankers – Calls and Puts on BAC
This is kind of a hedge against my position that I posted today on ABX. In that trade, I am clearly quite bearish, but history leans heavily towards a positive reaction to the FOMC announcement. I can be skeptical all I want but it probably makes sense to have a little coverage. (more…)
Bearish on Gold and the Fed – Puts on ABX
The consensus seems to be that the Fed will extend twist today. However, I can’t imagine that the run up has been based on twist expectations only. And in either case, I disagree. I think the Fed will make some vague promises to be ready to do “something” if things get “worse” and to keep interest rates low as long as “needed.” (more…)
Shorting AAPL – Yep, You Read that Right
This is a split strike combo or synthetic short position. I find AAPL options to be difficult to price without something like this. I would note for anyone looking at this that I am ripping off an idea for an article I found on this site several months ago. I have paper traded it for a while and used it in real-life a few times. It has a naked position (short call) but I like it as an alternative to shorting the stock. (more…)