Have Some Fun with Fed "What-If"

 
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OK, we know it's fruitless to play the "what of" game, and we're constantly telling traders to avoid it when it comes to their past trades and future results. However, sometimes it can be fun and actually educational. So we decided to write the article you'd read on any major news site if the Fed shocked us all and raised the Federal Funds Rate a quarter point. Add your own paragraphs too in the comments below!


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"The Federal Open Market Committee shocked the financial world today as it defied analysts, economists and investors by adding a quarter point raise to the Federal Funds Rate, the rate at which banks lend their federal reserve balances to each other.


The move is widely believed to be an effort to slow the looming threat of inflation. Traders on Wall Street anticipate that the move will not only lead to higher costs of capital within struggling industries but could lead to a round of stagflation. This ends the Fed's 0 interest rate policy and could signal future increases in subsequent meetings this year.


The move dealt a death-blow to the major currencies against the US dollar, as the EUR/USD plummeted to 1.35. Oil prices were likewise hit hard as the price of crude fell to $50 a barrel and is likely to continue its slide in coming weeks.


The plunge of US stocks triggered a halt in trading as pre-defined measures were hit which prevent the market from crashing. Investors and spokespeople at all the major institutions expressed outrage and concern that Ben Bernanke and his Committee were operating completely maverick and were likely to cause global economic collapse.




Even worse was the collapse of 12 major deposit banking institutions which folded when they had runs on their deposits as individuals pulled their dollars from the bank and planned to put them under matresses and in secret chests.


On CNBC, Jim Cramer was so irate and animated that he literally lost 45 pounds during a 30 minute broadcast. Stay tuned for more tomorrow."


OK, we got a little too cheeky at the end, but it's kind of fun to noodle on. Your thoughts?



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Comments Add New
Teddy  - Breaking news:   |2009-08-12 21:25:28
People in downtown LA and Manhattan are celebrating in the streets as this rate
hike was considered to be the confirmation of the end of the worst financial
crisis in history.
Financiers are considering adding a new type of recovery in
the financial dictionary the "I" shaped recovery.
We also heard rumor
that the 12 of august will be considered as an official holiday by a decree from
president Obama.
Eric  - Currency markets question   |2009-08-13 04:05:45
Would this type of a situation cause a spike for the dollar in the majors or
potentially throw the majors into solid dollar long trends?
Liviu_aussie, back in the mark  - A contrarian approach   |2009-08-14 00:34:17
The move had a very unusual effect on the markets
After an initial spike in
favor of the dollar, against the major currencies, the greenback started falling
like a rock. The US Dollar index lost 500 points in 8 hours and it is looking
to challenge the 70 level. There are rumors that China and Japan have been
spooked by this move and started dumping US treasuries at an alarming rate. The
TNX (the index that follows the yield of the 10y US Treasury note) is fast
approaching 50. The fear out there is that the inflation genie has left the
bottle and Helicopter Ben will not be able to get it back in. The question on
everybody’s mind is: “How desperate is Bernarke if he is raising the rates
in the middle of the worst recession since 1930s”.
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3.25 Copyright (C) 2007 Alain Georgette / Copyright (C) 2006 Frantisek Hliva. All rights reserved."

 

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