Are you bullish on the AUD/USD, are you bearish on the AUD/USD, or do you not have the foggiest idea what direction this currency pair is going to go?

Share your thoughts and ask you questions here.

What questions do you have about the AUD/USD? What are you looking at---both fundamentally and technically---that makes you think the AUD/USD is either going up or down?

Let's get the conversation rolling. We're happy to answer your questions, and you'll be amazed at what you can learn from each other.

The AUD/USD has been finding some support as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has been buying the Australian dollar in an attempt to intervene and support the value of the currency. Unfortunately, I think the rising tide of AUD bears is going to eventually overwhelm the RBA, and the AUD/USD will continue to move lower.

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083...E&refer=currency

Wade, you're killing me, man What are you all basing your analysis on right now on this pair? We did get a bounce and then it fell. Now, it's right at .6650 again. The news continues to be encouraging out of Australia but everything else in the world isn't and it seems to be pulling this pair down. Yet, how much does the US have in it to continue to pull this pair down? Or is this where we see it really spring forward? We're against the trend going long, you know... What do you see? I've heard two different analysis this week on this pair and that's why I'm asking. Thanks.

I agree with your last comment, Wade. I think the AUD has a lot more bearish pressure built up. The last two days are a a good example of how much bearishness is really out there. Not to mention the impact of the "counter carry trade" as all the money comes out of risk and into safety.

Hey Wade,

Interesting analysis for both scenarios on the AUD/USD on 11/14/08.

Are there fundamentals that you feel would contribute to a higher probability one way or another? An inverted head and shoulders would be more profitable but if dollar strength continues, that downward channel might be a little easier to trade.

Your thoughts....

I'm leaning toward the support level at the right shoulder holding. I think the USD is still a bit over-extended based on fear in the market, and if we can continue to see some stabilization and get some confidence back in the markets, the surge in demand for the USD should ebb a little bit.