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Understanding the Baltic Dry Index - Part 2 |
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Why Investors Watch the Baltic Dry Index
The Baltic Dry Index is a leading indicator that provides a clear view into the global demand for commodities and raw materials. The fact that the Baltic Dry Index focuses on raw materials is important because demand for raw materials provides a glimpse into the future. Producers buy raw materials when they want to start building more finished goods and infrastructure—like automobiles, heavy machinery, roads, buildings and so on. Producers stop buying raw materials when they have excess inventory and when they stop infrastructure projects.
Typically, demand for commodities and raw goods increases when global economies are growing. For investors, knowing when the global economy is growing is helpful because that means stock prices, commodity prices and the value of commodity-based currencies should be increasing. Conversely, demand for commodities and raw goods decreases when global economies are stalling or contracting. For investors, knowing when the global economy is contracting is helpful because that means stock prices, commodity prices and the value of commodity-based currencies should be decreasing.
The Baltic Dry Index is also a compelling indicator because it is a simple, real-time indicator that is difficult to manipulate. Some economic indicators—like unemployment rates, inflation indexes and oil prices—can be difficult to interpret because they can be manipulated or influenced by governments, speculators and other key players. The Baltic Dry Index, on the other hand, is difficult to manipulate because it is driven by clear forces of supply and demand.
The supply that affects the Baltic Dry Index is the supply of ships available to move materials around the globe. It is difficult to manipulate or distort this supply because it takes years to build a new ship that could be put into service to increase supply, and it would cost far too much to leave ships empty in an attempt to decrease supply. The demand that affects the Baltic Dry Index is the demand of commodity buyers who need the raw goods for production. It is difficult to manipulate or distort demand because it is calculated solely by those who have placed orders to have raw goods shipped. Nobody is going to pay to book a Capemax cargo ship who isn't actually going to use it.
Interpreting the Baltic Dry Index
The Baltic Dry Index typically increases in value as demand for commodities and raw goods increases and decreases in value as demand for commodities and raw goods decreases. Here's what it typically means when the Baltic Dry Index turns around and starts moving UP:
- Global economies are starting to, or continuing to, grow
- Companies are starting to, or continuing to, grow
- Stock prices should start to, or continue to, increase in value
- Commodity prices should start to, or continue to, increase in value
- The value of commodity currencies—like the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD)—should start to, or continue to, increase in value
Here's what it typically means when the Baltic Dry Index turns around and starts moving DOWN:
- Global economies are starting to, or continuing to, contract
- Companies are starting to, or continuing to, contract
- Stock prices should start to, or continue to, decrease in value
- Commodity prices should start to, or continue to, decrease in value
- The value of commodity currencies—like the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD)—should start to, or continue to, decrease in value
Next, watch the video for Understanding The Baltic Dry Index or go to the Baltic Dry Index Chart
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